78,912 finishes. That’s how many a recent analysis of the Boston Marathon looked at, and it found a difference of almost an hour depending on how people ran the final kilometres. A fascinating number. But before we talk about race day, we need to talk about the weeks before it. Because while most marathon guides focus on that one day in autumn, success is really decided in the 5 to 6 weeks before: the phase with the highest training volume of the whole build-up and, unsurprisingly, the highest injury risk.
This article is an attempt to go through this phase completely and without dogma: how to understand it from a training science perspective, which injuries are most common now, why less training just before the start brings more, and how to avoid the most common bad decision on race day itself.
The peak phase: highest volume, highest risk
Marathon preparation classically follows a structure of base building, a race-specific phase and a taper. The race-specific phase, the last 5 to 6 weeks before an autumn marathon, typically has the highest weekly volume of the whole build-up, including the longest run, usually about three weeks before the start.
That’s exactly what makes it risky. A systematic review of running injuries found that high weekly training distance is among the most robustly documented risk factors; the overall incidence of running injuries in long-distance runners ranges from 19.4 to 79.3 percent depending on the study. If you manage this phase well, you’ve often done half the work already, regardless of how many kilometres end up on your watch. How to think about training dose and zones in general is covered in another article; here it’s about the race-specific final phase.
Runner’s knee and shin splints: recognise them instead of ignoring them
The two most common overuse injuries in this phase are runner’s knee (iliotibial band syndrome, ITBS) and shin splints (medial tibial stress syndrome, MTSS). Both are well researched and usually respond well. No reason to panic, but a good reason to pay attention to how your body feels.
For runner’s knee, weak hip muscles are the best-documented modifiable risk factor. In a frequently cited study, 22 of 24 affected runners were symptom-free or clearly better after just six weeks of a targeted hip-strengthening programme. For shin splints, female sex, higher body weight, increased navicular drop (a sign of stronger foot pronation) and a previous running injury are among the most robust risk factors.
The popular ten percent rule, never increase weekly distance by more than ten percent, only partly holds up under scrutiny. A prospective cohort study found no clear threshold at exactly ten percent; the risk rises more gradually. Something else seems more relevant: a single run that’s more than ten percent longer than your longest run in the previous 30 days. So the biggest risk isn’t the weekly total but the single outlier run.
The practical rule of thumb stays simple: if pain increases while running or persists afterwards, that’s a signal to cut back. Not a reason to push through, but not a reason to self-diagnose via internet search either. Persistent problems belong with a professional.
Tapering: why less training brings more performance
If you cut back training just before a race, it often feels like losing fitness. The research shows the opposite. A meta-analysis of 27 studies found that the most effective approach is a taper of about two weeks with an exponential reduction, where training volume drops by 41 to 60 percent while intensity and frequency are largely maintained. Pure rest without maintained intensity worked much less well.
For the marathon, most training plans stretch this window to 2 to 3 weeks in practice, because total volume and muscular fatigue are higher than for shorter distances. The effect is worth it: on average, tapering brings about 3 percent more performance on race day, thanks to more blood volume, fuller glycogen stores and a more favourable hormonal balance.
The psychological side of this process is interesting. A scoping review of 48 studies on “taper anxiety” found that tapering actually improves mood in most studies. For some athletes, though, the reduction in training itself becomes a stressor, especially with a strong attachment to training. That’s usually the gap between habit and actual need, not a sign of real fitness loss. In my experience, if you deliberately invest the freed-up time in your fuelling plan, a kit check and travel logistics, you get through these weeks much more calmly.
Strength training: the lever that gets cut first
Of all times, in the phase with the highest training volume, strength training is the first thing many people drop from the plan, out of worry it’ll make them slower. A systematic review of studies with middle- and long-distance runners found that supplementary strength training consistently improves running economy without impairing endurance performance. Twice a week is considered an evidence-based baseline, focusing on squat variations, single-leg exercises and hip abductor strengthening: conveniently, the same exercises that also protect against runner’s knee. How to combine strength and endurance training sensibly is covered in more depth in a separate article.
Carb-loading without the myth
The classic idea of carb-loading, three days of low-carb eating plus exhausting training followed by three days of massive carb intake, dates back to the 1960s and has been outdated since a controlled study in 1981: the starvation phase simply isn’t needed to supercompensate glycogen stores. Today a much simpler protocol is enough: 36 to 48 hours before the start, 10 to 12 grams of carbs per kilogram of body weight per day, while reducing training. During the race itself, the rule of thumb is 30 to 60 grams of carbs per hour. The short-term weight gain from stored glycogen (roughly 1 to 2 percent) is welcome energy, not fat gain, and definitely no reason to worry.
Race-day strategy: the underrated power of even pacing
Back to the number from the beginning. An analysis of 78,912 Boston Marathon finishes identified four pacing patterns: even pacing (47.9 percent of runners), mild positive splitting, strong positive splitting and variable pacing. Even pacing was consistently associated with the fastest finish times across all age and performance groups: on average 217 minutes versus 276 minutes with strong positive splitting, a difference of about 59 minutes. With variable pacing, 85.4 percent experienced a clear slowdown in the final section; with even pacing, only 0.2 percent did.
Notably, 82 percent of elite runners paced evenly, but only 19.6 percent of recreational runners. The tempting but rarely supported wish for a heroic negative split, the second half faster than the first, remains more theory than practice for most recreational runners. The simple, unspectacular rule wins according to the data: set your target pace in advance and deliberately don’t run faster in the first half, even if it feels effortless.
For the last 48 hours, the same applies: increase carb intake, reduce training to easy movement, prioritise enough sleep (more on that in our article on sleep and recovery), don’t test any new gear and sort out travel and logistics the day before to minimise stress on race day.
Why an individual plan is more than a nice extra
A generic training plan from an app is based on a group average. It knows neither your previous injuries nor your time budget nor your sleep: exactly the factors that decide which increase you can actually handle. In coaching practice, every plan therefore starts with an intake check: training history, previous injuries, current life circumstances. On that basis, two athletes with an identical weekly volume goal often get completely different plans: more hip strengthening and a more conservative long-run progression with a history of ITBS, or fewer but denser sessions with a tight time budget. Weekly volumes work better as a corridor with clear adjustment rules than as a rigid percentage.
Bottom line
The 5 to 6 weeks before your marathon aren’t the phase to quickly catch up on everything. They’re the phase in which the work of the previous months is either secured or thrown away. An attentive early-warning system for runner’s knee and shin splints, a clean taper with maintained intensity, strength training that isn’t the first thing to go, a realistic carb-loading protocol, and on race day itself, simply: run evenly. None of it is complicated. Most of it is just uncomfortable, right before it counts.
This article doesn’t replace medical or physiotherapy advice. If pain increases while running or persists after training, please get it checked by a professional.
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